Yankees trade for NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton

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Matt Linder

Well, that was a quick rebuild!  The Yankees have agreed to a trade with the Marlins that sends Giancarlo Stanton to New York in exchange for Starlin Castro and two prospects.  The Yankees will also receive $30M if Stanton does not opt out of his contract after the 2020 season.  The deal has yet to be formerly announced by either team, but the only thing that could hold it up is a failed physical.  Let’s break down: how and why the trade happened, the players the Yankees gave up, the deal’s impact on the current roster and the team’s mission to get under the luxury tax threshold.

The Marlins new ownership group, led by Derek Jeter, made it clear that their goal was to cut payroll in order to get the franchise’s finances under control.  Trading away the team’s most expensive player was the easiest and quickest way to accomplish that objective.  Back in 2014, Stanton signed a 13 year deal worth $325M with a full no-trade clause.  He used that clause to veto trades to the Giants and Cardinals thereby giving the Yankees all of the leverage.  Brian Cashman was then able to acquire a generational player for a relatively light package of players because he knew the Marlins’ main focus was to shed salary, not receive high caliber prospects.

Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire

The only major leaguer who the Yankees are trading away is Starlin Castro.  In 2017, he hit .300 with an OBP of .338 and 16 home runs.  Although his early season success made him an All-Star, he also missed 50 games due to hamstring problems.  In addition, many in the organization viewed him as the stop gap second baseman between Robinson Cano and the teams’ deep crop of top infield prospects.  As they anticipated, top prospect Gleyber Torres is knocking on the door to the major leagues, so Castro’s time in pinstripes was limited.  Now, whether the Marlins keep him or trade him away, he will get a chance to play without having to look over his shoulder.

mlbpipeline.com

The more highly touted of the two prospects the Marlins received in the trade is Jorge Guzman.  He was rated as Yankees 7th best prospect by MLB.com and is a big addition to the Marlins weak farm system.  The 21 year old right handed pitcher had a 2.30 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 66.2 innings in Single A.  Guzman is known for his upper 90s fastball, while his secondary pitches are inconsistent, yet promising.  The Yankees dealt from excess considering they have many other raw, hard throwing young pitchers in their system.

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The other minor who was dealt to Miami is Jose Devers, the cousin of Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers.  He was not included in MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospect ranking.  The 18 year old shortstop hit .245 with an OBP of .336 and 16 steals over 53 games in Rookie Ball.  Although Devers does not profile as a home run hitter, he has a chance to add some gap power as he physically matures.

So, how does the Stanton trade impact the Yankees current roster?  He certainly adds another bonafide star to a team already stacked with young talent.  Stanton just completed his historic NL MVP season in which he hit .281 with an OBP of .376 and 59 home runs.  He also finished first amongst NL position players with a 7.5 WAR according to Baseball Reference.  The addition of Stanton presents an interesting dilemma in the already crowded Yankees outfield.  As of now, they still have Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier.  There is no way the team enters the season with all six of these players.  Ellsbury and/or Gardner are the most likely to be moved in order to open up a spot for Stanton and Frazier can stay in AAA to develop or be used as possible trade bait for some starting pitching.  The Yankees would then have four players (Ellsbury/Gardner, Judge, Stanton and Hicks) switching time between the three outfield positions and DH.  I am interested to see how the Yankees manage this situation.  Do they have Stanton DH most of the time and keep Judge in right field?  Or do they transition Judge over to left field in order to make room for Stanton to play right field?

Lastly, let’s look at how the deal impacts the vaunted $197M luxury tax limit.  Over the past few seasons, Yankees ownership has made it clear that they are intent on getting under the soft cap.  As my first article broke down, 2018 is the first time that the goal was actually feasible.  There are currently only two open roster spots: one in the starting rotation and one for Starlin Castro’s replacement.  Let’s operate under the assumption that Stanton plays the remaining 10 years of his contract with the Yankees and therefore, the Marlins $30M is used.  Before the trade, the Yankees payroll was around $160M.  Stanton’s cap hit for 2018 and beyond is $22M.  With Starlin Castro’s $8.6M cap hit heading to Miami, the Yankees are adding $13.4M to their payroll in 2018.  The acquisition of the hulking slugger brings the team’s overall expenses to around $173.5M.  That leaves the organization with a little over $20M to spend on the two unfilled roster spots.  They could use about $13M to re-sign CC Sabathia and fill the starting rotation opening. Then to replace Castro, the Yankees can use some cheap combination of Ronald Torreyes, Tyler Wade and Gleyber Torres, who all make the near major league minimum salary.  Even while taking on much of Stanton’s sizable contract, the organization can still address their needs and have a few million dollars left over for a trade deadline acquisition or minor free agent signing.  Also, keep in mind that the Yankees certainly hope to trade Ellsbury and/or Gardner which would mitigate more of Stanton’s contract.  It is a good thing that the cost of baseballs does not count against the cap because balls will be flying out of the ballpark in 2018.

I did not think I could get any more excited for the Yankees 2018 season.  However, after this trade, my excitement level has soared to the towering height of a Stanton home run.  The combination of Judge and Giancarlo, not to mention Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius and Greg Bird, will be a joy to watch for Yankee fans and a life-threatening proposition for opposing pitchers.

If you have any questions, comments or criticisms feel free to reach out to me at mattlinder2@gmail.com