Are the Mikal Bridges/Kawhi Leonard Comparisons Fair?

(Bleacher Report)

Tyler Kemp

Earlier today, Villanova forward Mikal Bridges decided to forgo his final year of college eligibility and declared for the NBA draft. The redshirt junior has won two national championships and individual honors such as the Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year as well as being named an All-American selection. Bridges, a projected lottery pick, has drawn a lot of interest from a multitude of teams picking at the top of the draft. As soon as a college basketball player gains any sort of media attention as a potential draft pick, fans and pundits alike begin to search for comparisons for each individual player. One player whose name has been associated with Bridges is Spurs superstar and San Diego State product Kawhi Leonard. Are these comparisons reasonable or are they straight out of left field? Let’s take a deeper look at present day Bridges and Leonard from his college days:

Scouting Report:

Bridges checks in at a slender build of 6’7 and 210 pounds, a frame that he has added upwards of 20 pounds to ever since arriving at Villanova’s campus back in the summer of 2014. Leonard started his career at San Diego State at a solid size of 6’7, 210 pounds according to his recruiting profile on espn.com. After getting drafted by the Spurs 15^th overall in the year 2011, he has added some weight of his own and now weighs 230 pounds. Although Leonard came into school at the size that Bridges is today, a proper training regimen with an NBA organization can help Bridges add more muscle to his frame.

According to nbascoutinglive.com, the scouting report on Mikal Bridges points to his strengths as being a good shooter from any spot on the floor, an exceptional scorer while moving, being able to create his shot off the dribble, and having a solid post game. All of these are in addition to Bridges’ exceptional defense, as he was named Big East Defensive Player of the Year in the 2016-17 season as a redshirt sophomore. Sounds eerily similar to the game of the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, right? Leonard’s scouting report on nbadraft.net reads that he, “shows the ability to play with his back to the basket” as well as the fact that “his shooting has improved and (he) has become a respectable threat from the outside.” When it comes to defense, Leonard, “has the instincts and shows potential in becoming a very solid defender.” Leonard has proven all of these aspects correct as his scoring average has increased every season from his rookie year of 2011-12 all the way up to last year’s 2016-17 season (he has spent most of this season injured due to a lingering quad injury). Both players are praised for their ability to play on both ends of the court and Bridges is hoping to prove the scouts correct once he officially makes the jump to the Association.

Statistics

When examining both Bridges’ and Leonard’s impressive stat lines from college, it is not the regular numbers such as points, rebounds, assists per game that should be examined due to the fact that they played in two totally different systems. Leonard played for coach Steve Fisher during his days at San Diego State where he was the man right away leading his team in scoring in his two years in college with 12.7 and 15.5 points per game in his freshman and sophomore seasons, respectively. Bridges, on the other hand, has seen a steady increase in minutes and points over his three years as a student athlete at Villanova and did not average upwards of 10 points until this past season when he broke out with 17.7 points per game en route to Big East and National championships. He has also been on teams loaded with championship talent such as fellow NBA prospect Jalen Brunson and 2018 Most Outstanding Player Donte DiVincenzo. Back in the 2016 season as a redshirt freshman (another National Championship season), he was a reserve on a team that fielded a freshman Brunson and other players who have already made the jump to the pros such as Ryan Arcidiacono, Daniel Ochefu, Kris Jenkins, and Josh Hart.

It took some more digging into the basketball purists’ least favorite word: analytics. The advanced numbers point to a few commonalities between Bridges and Leonard. The first stat that jumps off the page is Player Efficiency Rating (PER), which is a formula developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger to calculate all the positive and negative plays a player makes in a game on a scale of 0-30 with 15 being average. Bridges’ PER this past season was 26.8 while Kawhi’s PER in his last year of college was 26.5. Both players are known for being very efficient with their touches and it shows with their play on the court. The next statistic is steals per 100 possessions, which means how many steals does a player average per 100 possessions to adjust for the error of how many possessions there actually are in a game (there are about 70 on average in a college basketball game). Bridges averaged 2.7 steals per 100 possessions and Kawhi averaged… 2.7 steals per 100 possessions. This means their impact on the defensive end of the floor of getting into passing lanes and creating points for their respective teams was statistically the same. The last number that is similar between the two is free throws made per game. Bridges averaged 2.9 made per game and Leonard averaged 3.1 made per game. Neither player averaged more than 4 free throw attempts per game which signifies how both players spent most of their time on the perimeter rather than being aggressive and getting into the paint. Going beyond the basic per game stats, these numbers are almost identical between two very similar players.

The Verdict?

After further examination, the verdict is that the comparisons between Bridges and Leonard are more than reasonable. Does this all mean that Mikal Bridges will be better than Leonard? Not necessarily because it is a difficult task for anyone to achieve as Leonard has two NBA Defensive Player of the Year awards to his credit. Based on the advanced numbers, scouting reports, and the laid-back personalities they both possess, it is not hard to see why scouts compare the Villanova forward to one of the best two-way players in the NBA. It will be very intriguing to see the development of Mikal Bridges’ professional career and if he can meet and even possibly exceed expectations set out for him.

(All stats are from www.sports-reference.com)